It is widely believed that Tehran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons has always had two main objectives: first, to threaten Israel; and second, to warn United States and the rest of the world that any attack on Iran would come at a cost too high for any دشمن to bear. Although the joint war by the United States and Israel has somewhat reduced the threat against Israel, Iran’s firm control over the Strait of Hormuz demonstrates that it does not need nuclear weapons to create severe global disruption. This waterway has rapidly become the center of the conflict, with Iranian forces and their proxies targeting tankers and obstructing maritime traffic through a toll system. According to Marwan Muasher, Vice President of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Iran has discovered that controlling the Strait of Hormuz is more effective than possessing a nuclear bomb.”
Trump’s anger and frustration: Last Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump vented his anger on social media using extremely harsh and offensive language. Frustrated by the failure of military efforts to reopen the crucial route through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes, he warned Iran, saying, “Open the strait… or you will live in hell—just watch!” Just days earlier, however, Trump had maintained a more optimistic tone to reassure allies and gain voter support, stating that the Strait would reopen naturally because Iran must sell its oil as the only path to reconstruction. He also claimed that “Operation Epic Fury” was nearing completion and that the United States would launch a decisive strike within two to three weeks.
New arrangements in Hormuz: Although the Trump administration has never explicitly stated that keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is the primary reason for the war, its impact on the global economy has clearly unsettled the White House. There are even indications that the U.S. might consider ending the war without reopening the strait. Iran would likely welcome such a decision, as analysts see little incentive for Tehran to relinquish control. Carnegie analyst Karim Sadjadpour noted that Iran is openly discussing formalizing this control, effectively turning the strait into its own “Panama Canal”—a move considered unacceptable not just for the United States but for the entire world.
Sadjadpour and Muasher suggest that Iran has shifted its focus from conventional military confrontation to a strategy centered on political endurance and survival. Tehran has also demanded tens of billions of dollars in compensation to rebuild damaged infrastructure as part of any agreement. Analysts warn that the growing use of alternative currencies in energy trade—particularly favoring China—could weaken U.S. financial dominance. Reports indicate that Iran is collecting up to $2 million per tanker for safe passage, generating billions of dollars in daily revenue.
Last week, Iranian leaders approved a plan to institutionalize toll collection permanently and ban vessels linked to the United States or Israel from passing through. They view this as both a revenue source and a formal assertion of sovereignty. Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly offering preferential treatment to U.S. rivals such as China, while analysts claim that Russia and China are assisting Iran with satellite intelligence. Iranian lawmaker Mohammadreza Rezaei Kouchi defended the policy, stating, “This is entirely natural. Just as transit fees are paid in other corridors, Hormuz is also a corridor. We provide security, so it is only fair that ships pay.”
An uncertain future: Approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products pass through the strait daily—accounting for 20 to 25 percent of global consumption. Most exports from Persian Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq depend on this route. At a meeting of 41 nations, British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper stated, “We are witnessing Iran effectively holding the global economy hostage by controlling an আন্তর্জাতিক maritime route.” She added that since the launch of “Operation Epic Fury,” Iran has carried out more than 25 attacks on ships, leaving around 2,000 vessels and 20,000 sailors stranded.
Carnegie researcher Nicole Grajewski noted that despite wartime losses, Iran could rebuild its ballistic missile program within a year, while drones and UAVs are even easier to produce, often in small or civilian facilities. Muasher warned that the traditional strategy of relying on the United States for Arab world security is no longer credible. He concluded, “If Trump abandons the war without reopening the strait, no other country is likely to use force to do so, because they lack both the capability and the willingness.”
Iran has acquired a weapon more effective than a nuclear bomb!
