The Jatiya Party (JAPA) was once considered the third major political force in Bangladesh, often playing a crucial role in the balance of power between the two dominant parties. However, due to its long political alignment with the Awami League, participation in controversial elections, internal leadership crises, and repeated splits, the party has now lost much of its former position.
Following the July mass uprising and the changing political landscape, the party has become increasingly cornered. In the 13th National Parliamentary Election, it failed to win any seats, and even in its traditional stronghold areas such as Rangpur, its influence has significantly declined. As a result, a major question now arises—can the Jatiya Party regain relevance in national politics?
Many political analysts, as well as current and former leaders of the party, believe that the chances of its comeback in electoral and grassroots politics are very slim. The party lacks a strong organizational workforce, much of its support base has shifted to other political groups, and it also faces a leadership vacuum. As a result, in the current political arena, the Jatiya Party is increasingly being viewed as a minor political party.
Since the restoration of parliamentary democracy in 1991, until 2008, the Jatiya Party consistently held the position of the third major force after the Awami League and the BNP. In the elections of 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2008, the party secured a significant number of parliamentary seats. Later, in the controversial elections of 2014, 2018, and 2024, it aligned with the Awami League and, in some cases, benefited from seat-sharing arrangements, even serving as the main opposition party in parliament.
However, that political position has now completely changed. In the 13th National Election, the party fielded candidates in 200 constituencies but failed to win a single seat, with none of its candidates emerging as serious contenders. Combined with organizational fragmentation, leadership crises, and erosion of its vote bank, the Jatiya Party now faces an existential crisis.
The most visible collapse of its influence is in Rangpur, where the personal popularity of Hussain Muhammad Ershad once gave the party a strong foundation under the symbol “Boat/Langol.” However, in the latest election, party chairman GM Quader finished third in Rangpur-3 constituency. A region that was once considered the party’s stronghold no longer considers the Jatiya Party even a close competitor.
Former military ruler Hussain Muhammad Ershad founded the Jatiya Party in 1986 while in power. Even after his fall in the 1990 mass uprising, the party survived and remained active in electoral politics during Bangladesh’s transition to democracy. However, after the student–public uprising of 2024, that political reality changed dramatically.
The biggest reason behind the party’s current decline is widely believed to be its long political association with the Awami League. According to analysts, this alliance has caused long-term damage to the party’s identity. The Jatiya Party supported the Awami League in forming governments in 1996, became part of the Grand Alliance in 2008, and participated in three controversial elections (2014, 2018, and 2024) through seat-sharing arrangements.
Instead of strengthening its own organization, the party increasingly depended on state power structures, intelligence influence, and political compromise. Over time, it lost its independent political identity.
Internal divisions have further weakened the party. Even during Ershad’s lifetime, leadership disputes existed, and after his death in 2019, the crisis deepened. Rivalry between Raushon Ershad and GM Quader, along with defections of senior leaders and the creation of breakaway factions, severely damaged the party’s organizational strength.
Before the latest election, major splits also emerged, with leaders such as Anisul Islam Mahmud, Mujibul Haque Chunnu, Ruhul Amin Howlader, and Kazi Feroz Rashid taking separate positions. Legal disputes over the party’s symbol “Langol” further deepened confusion among workers and supporters.
The party’s election results clearly show a downward trend. In 1991, it won 35 seats with around 12% of the vote. In 1996, it won 32 seats with about 16%. In 2001, it dropped to 14 seats with 7%. In 2008, it rose again to 28 seats with around 7%. In 2014, it became the main opposition with 34 seats due to an uncontested election. In 2018, it won 22 seats, and in 2024, only 11 seats with around 3% of the vote. In the 13th election, it failed to win any seats.
Alongside electoral decline, internal fragmentation has severely weakened the party structure. Several factions and breakaway groups such as Jatiya Party (JPA) and Bangladesh Jatiya Party (BJP) emerged earlier, further dividing its support base.
After the July uprising, the party also faced political pressure, including attacks on its offices, legal cases against leaders, and exclusion from major political dialogues. Many parties even demanded restrictions on its activities, further isolating it from the political mainstream.
Overall, due to its long-standing alliance with the Awami League, organizational weakness, leadership crisis, and declining public support, the Jatiya Party is now facing a deep existential crisis. Whether it can regain its relevance in Bangladesh’s future electoral politics remains an open question.
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