According to officials familiar with U.S. intelligence assessments, Iran still possesses thousands of ballistic missiles in its arsenal, which it can deploy by retrieving launchers from underground storage facilities; this assessment comes at a time when the United States is working to enforce a ceasefire that would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and protect Iran, U.S. troops, and regional states from further attacks; some U.S. officials fear that Iran could use this pause in fighting to rebuild its missile stockpile; Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said this week that Iran’s missile program has been “effectively destroyed,” with its launchers and missiles degraded, destroyed, or nearly entirely disabled, yet U.S. intelligence reports suggest a more complex picture—indicating Iran may still be able to reconstitute parts of its missile forces; although more than half of Iran’s missile launchers are believed to be destroyed, damaged, or trapped underground, many of the remaining systems could potentially be repaired or recovered; U.S. and Israeli officials say that while Iran’s missile stockpile has been reduced by roughly half during the conflict, it still retains thousands of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles that could be brought out from hidden or underground sites; officials also note that fewer than 50 percent of Iran’s one-way attack drones remain, as many have been used in combat and production facilities have been damaged by U.S. and Israeli strikes, though Iran could seek similar systems from Russia if needed; Iran is also believed to retain a limited number of cruise missiles, which could be used against ships in the Persian Gulf or U.S. forces if talks collapse; Kenneth Pollack of the Middle East Institute said Iran has demonstrated an extraordinary ability to innovate and rebuild quickly, making it a more formidable opponent than most regional militaries aside from Israel; while analysts do not expect Iran to quickly return to its pre-war missile and drone capacity due to heavy damage to its defense industry, some launchers could still be fielded; Israeli officials estimate that about two-thirds of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers have been rendered inoperable, though some buried systems may be recoverable; they also say that of roughly 2,500 medium-range missiles Iran had at the start of the war, more than 1,000 still remain; a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command declined to comment, pointing instead to recent remarks by senior military leaders; Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine said the strikes shattered Iran’s defense industrial base, with more than 13,000 munitions used to target missile and drone storage, naval assets, and defense infrastructure to prevent Iran from rebuilding its ability to project power beyond its borders; White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said the U.S. military achieved all its objectives and that this success has strengthened Washington’s position in negotiations; she added that if Iran acts in good faith, there is hope for a positive outcome; Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are set to join Vice President Vance in Islamabad for talks with Iran; Iran, long constrained by a weak air force, has relied heavily on its missile arsenal for deterrence and power projection; during the 1991 Gulf War, locating Iraq’s mobile Scud missiles proved a major challenge for the United States, and similar difficulties apply to Iran’s dispersed and underground systems; however, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have been conducted primarily from the air, while many missile bases built deep בתוך mountainous terrain remain difficult to destroy; Israeli officials say they managed to reduce Iran’s daily missile launches to about 10–15 during most of the conflict, down from dozens at the outset; they also claim Iran is currently unable to produce new missiles, with any recovery depending on assistance from Russia or China; future limits on Iran’s military capability will depend not only on the threat of further strikes but also on sanctions and export controls; Iran’s key demand in negotiations remains the removal of both primary and secondary sanctions; Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that even with a fraction of its former capacity, Iran can still play a decisive role in Gulf security, adding that for Iran, not losing on any given day can be considered a form of victory, while for its adversaries, failing to achieve total success each day can amount to a setback.
Iran still has thousands of missiles intact; launchers can be repaired at any time: Intelligence report
