Ceasefire talks between Iran and the United States are set to begin today, Saturday, in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, under Pakistani mediation. Ahead of the meeting, representatives from both Iran and the United States have already arrived in Islamabad.
On February 28, the United States and Israel jointly launched attacks on Iran, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with several top officials, and causing extensive damage to both military and civilian infrastructure. Over the past five weeks, more than 3,000 people have been killed in Iran. In response, Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas is transported, triggering major instability in global energy markets.
Under Pakistan’s mediation, Iran and the United States agreed on April 8 to a two-week ceasefire, which will expire on April 22. In this context, senior officials from both countries are meeting in Islamabad today to discuss the ceasefire. The talks are taking place at a time when there is a significant gap between the positions of the two sides. The United States is demanding that Iran halt its nuclear program, limit its missile capabilities, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, ongoing Israeli attacks in Lebanon are putting the ceasefire at risk.
For a comprehensive resolution, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif formally invited both sides to the مذاکرات. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated that the first round of talks will begin on Saturday morning local time. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has indicated that the discussions could continue for up to 15 days, suggesting that some members of the delegations may remain in Islamabad or return for subsequent rounds.
The delegations are expected to stay at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad’s Red Zone, where the main talks are likely to take place. Due to security concerns, public holidays were declared in Islamabad on April 9 and 10, although essential services such as police, hospitals, and utilities remain operational. The entire city has been placed under heightened security, with the Red Zone sealed off and key entry routes into the capital closed.
The United States delegation will be led by Vice President J.D. Vance, accompanied by President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner. Iran’s delegation will be led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. It remains unclear whether any representatives from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will participate, although Ghalibaf himself is a former IRGC commander. Pakistani officials have cautioned that nothing can be confirmed until all delegations have fully arrived.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will act as the official host of the meeting and may hold separate preliminary talks with both sides based on their arrival times. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who has been actively involved in diplomatic efforts throughout the conflict, is expected to serve as the coordinator during the main discussions. However, it remains unclear whether Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, will take part. The talks are expected to be indirect, with the US and Iranian delegations seated in separate rooms while Pakistani officials shuttle messages between them.
The inclusion of J.D. Vance is being seen as particularly significant. During previous discussions held in Muscat and Geneva in February, the United States launched strikes on Iran, which has led to deep mistrust in Tehran toward figures like Witkoff and Kushner. Iranian officials reportedly view Vance as comparatively more sincere about ending the conflict. As a potential Republican presidential candidate for 2028, Vance has often expressed caution regarding prolonged US military involvement in the Middle East.
In recent weeks, Pakistan has emerged as a key mediator between Washington and Tehran. Despite past tensions, Islamabad currently maintains functional relations with both sides. Pakistan shares a 900-kilometer border with Iran and hosts one of the largest Shia Muslim populations outside Iran, increasing its importance to Tehran. At the same time, Pakistan has been recognized as a major non-NATO ally of the United States since 2004, strengthening its position as a bridge between the Two sides .
Both sides are entering the talks with significant disagreements. Iran has proposed a 10-point peace plan, which includes maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, the withdrawal of US troops from the Middle East, and an end to military operations against its allied armed groups. The United States has not formally accepted these conditions, although President Trump has described the proposal as “workable.” Meanwhile, the Trump administration has put forward a 15-point framework, including demands related to Iran’s nuclear program, regional activities, and missile capabilities, although the full details have not been officially disclosed.
The White House has claimed that Iran is willing to give up its stockpile of enriched uranium, stating that there is no room for compromise on this issue. However, Iran has not officially confirmed any such agreement.
Another major point of contention is Lebanon. On Wednesday, Israeli strikes in northern Lebanon reportedly killed more than 200 people, marking one of the deadliest attacks in the current conflict. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned that Tehran may withdraw from the ceasefire if Israeli attacks continue. He also stated that the United States must choose between supporting the ceasefire or continuing the war through Israel. Araghchi pointed to earlier remarks by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif suggesting that the ceasefire should cover the entire region, including Lebanon.
However, J.D. Vance stated in Budapest that Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire terms, a position that aligns with President Trump and the White House. Analysts warn that the situation has already become highly volatile. Former Pakistani ambassador to China, Masood Khalid, told Al Jazeera that Israel is attempting to undermine the peace process by continuing its attacks in Lebanon, thereby pushing the The parties toward harder positions and risking a collapse of the talks. He noted that, at this stage, only cautious optimism is possible, as the discussions are likely to be complex, prolonged, and may extend beyond the initial 15-day timeline.
Washington-based analyst Sahar Khan echoed similar concerns, identifying a “crisis of trust” as the biggest obstacle. She said both Washington and Tehran are currently making maximum demands in an effort to present themselves as the stronger side. However, she emphasized that if the ceasefire holds and both sides remain engaged in dialogue, that alone would be a significant step forward.
Analysts believe that due to deep mistrust, a short-term comprehensive resolution is unlikely. Lebanon has emerged as the প্রধান fault line between the two sides, and Israel’s absence from the talks presents a structural challenge. Some experts argue that Israel, as a key party to the conflict, should be included in any final agreement; otherwise, it may reject the terms and continue military actions.
Despite these challenges, there is some hope that the Strict positions may soften over time. Experts suggest that a limited understanding could be reached on Iran’s nuclear program and a multilateral arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as both sides appear fatigued and eager for a pause in hostilities. However, the issue of who would guarantee such a peace agreement remains unresolved. It is unlikely that any single country would be willing to take on that risk, and broader support from major regional powers and permanent members of the United Nations Security Council may be required to ensure compliance.
Ultimately, analysts stress that it is too early to discuss guarantors. The immediate priority is to build trust and sustain the ceasefire. If the United States can restrain Israel and halt attacks in Lebanon during the negotiations, it would mark a major success and could be presented as a diplomatic victory by President Trump. Nevertheless, the road to peace remains long, complex, and uncertain.
Today’s meeting to determine the future of the ceasefire, attention from around the world
