U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a warning that he may move to fully block the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. He also claimed that he has long been pressuring Iran to keep this crucial waterway open, but said he is now forced to take a tougher stance.
In a post on his social media platform Truth Social on Sunday morning, Trump stated that the world’s most powerful U.S. Navy would immediately begin blockade operations against any vessels attempting to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, the goal is to create a situation where everyone can freely navigate the waterway, but Iran is preventing that from happening.
Reports indicate that after a joint U.S.–Israel strike on February 28, pressure on oil tanker movements increased, further escalating tensions in the Middle East. This has caused severe economic losses for oil-dependent countries and led to a sharp rise in global oil prices.
Analysts say that although the Strait of Hormuz is not completely closed, Iran is allegedly charging significant “tolls” for each tanker passing through, reportedly up to $2 million per vessel. At the same time, Iran has continued its own oil exports even during heightened conflict.
According to data from Kepler, Iran exported an average of around 1.85 million barrels of crude oil per day in March, higher than in previous months. It is believed that Washington’s tougher stance is aimed at limiting this revenue stream.
A full blockade of the Strait could cut off a major source of income for Iran, but it would also risk severe volatility in global oil markets. For this reason, the U.S. has avoided such a move in the past.
U.S. energy data suggests that recent partial sanctions relief allowed millions of barrels of oil to enter the global market, temporarily stabilizing supply. However, after Iran withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2018, the U.S. reimposed strict sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
Recent policy adjustments increased oil supply in global markets, helping stabilize prices but also raising criticism that Iran’s revenues indirectly increased. Trump stated that Iran cannot be allowed to sell oil freely while restricting others, adding that either everyone should be allowed to pass or no one should.
Meanwhile, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) said that all vessels heading toward Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman are being placed under increased monitoring and control, with restrictions potentially taking effect soon.
On the other hand, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a strong warning that any foreign military vessel approaching the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of a ceasefire agreement and would face a decisive response. The IRGC also claimed that the Strait is currently under full Iranian naval control, while commercial shipping is allowed under strict regulations.
Regarding the ceasefire situation, it is reported that although a temporary truce between the United States, Israel, and Iran came into effect on April 7, shipping activity in the region significantly decreased due to security risks, with many vessels avoiding the route or diverting elsewhere.
Marine traffic data shows that vessel movement through the Strait has dropped sharply compared to normal levels.
Experts believe that even if a U.S. blockade is implemented, its short-term impact may be limited because shipping activity is already reduced and many companies involved in Iranian trade are already under sanctions. As a result, most shipping firms are expected to wait for a more stable and lasting peace agreement before resuming normal operations.
Iran has closed Hormuz, Trump has also threatened to blockade it, what is going to happen in the strait?
