Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump are set to meet in Beijing on May 14 and 15, marking the first visit by an American president to China in the past nine years. The meeting between the world’s two most powerful leaders comes at a time when global tensions are rising across multiple fronts. According to the World Economic Forum, the two leaders last met in Busan, South Korea, in October, where they managed to ease trade war tensions and reduce tariffs from 57 percent to 47 percent. However, the current geopolitical climate has become far more complicated due to the Iran war in the Middle East, a worldwide energy crisis, and intensifying technological competition. A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) states that Trump’s main objective in Beijing is to stabilize relations between the world’s two largest powers. The agenda for the summit is broad and highly significant. According to The New York Times, the United States plans to focus on the “Five Bs” during the talks: Boeing aircraft, beef exports, soybeans, a Board of Trade, and a Board of Investment. China, meanwhile, wants to prioritize the “Three Ts” — tariffs, technology, and Taiwan. Beyond those issues, the two leaders are also expected to discuss the Iran conflict, the war in Ukraine, North Korea, artificial intelligence, and efforts to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States. Reuters reports that Trump is also expected to raise the issue of Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai, who recently received a 20-year prison sentence. Analysts say both countries are seeking concrete strategic gains from the visit. Washington hopes the meeting will produce direct economic and security benefits for the United States. The U.S. wants China to use its influence over Iran to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Economically, Washington is pushing for China to purchase 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually and finalize a major deal to buy 500 Boeing 737 Max aircraft. The United States also plans to propose a permanent “Board of Trade” to oversee at least $30 billion in bilateral commerce between the two nations. China’s expectations center on stability and economic security. Beijing wants the United States to establish a predictable framework regarding tariffs on Chinese goods and remove restrictions on the sale of advanced microchip manufacturing equipment to China. Chinese officials are also expected to propose the creation of a “Board of Investment” alongside the trade mechanism. Reuters says Taiwan remains China’s most critical concern. Beijing wants Washington to make its position on Taiwan’s independence more explicit. While the United States traditionally says it does not support Taiwanese independence, Xi Jinping reportedly wants Washington to clearly state its opposition to it. CSIS analysts believe the summit could have a highly positive impact on global politics if successful. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz could lower oil prices and ease the global energy crisis. Countries across the Indo-Pacific region hope U.S.-China relations remain in a balanced “Goldilocks” state — neither too hostile nor too close — so they are not forced to choose sides. For the United States, the trip presents both major opportunities and serious risks. With midterm elections approaching in November, Trump could gain a major political and economic boost if he secures large agricultural and aviation deals with China. Easier access to rare earth minerals from China would also benefit America’s automotive and aerospace industries. However, the Council on Foreign Relations warns that Trump could make concessions on Taiwan or other allies’ security concerns in exchange for cooperation from Beijing on Iran and trade, alarming countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In addition, China’s state-supported electric vehicles, solar panels, and battery industries continue flooding global markets with low-cost products, threatening American and other foreign manufacturers. China also sees enormous opportunities in the summit. CSIS notes that Beijing will portray Trump’s visit as recognition of China’s growing global power and diplomatic importance. Any economic agreement could help China avoid a deeper slowdown and stabilize its export markets. Yet the Iran war poses serious risks for Beijing. According to The New York Times, rising oil prices are putting long-term pressure on China’s economy. The United States has already sanctioned a Chinese oil refinery and threatened additional sanctions against Chinese banks, increasing economic uncertainty for Beijing. If the summit fails to produce meaningful agreements, the consequences for the global economy and international relations could be severe. First, the U.S.-China trade war could intensify once again. The World Economic Forum notes that the Trump administration previously imposed tariffs ranging from 34 percent to 125 percent on Chinese goods, leading to a nearly 20 percent drop in Chinese exports to the United States in 2025. A breakdown in negotiations could revive that economic confrontation. Supply chains for rare earth minerals could collapse, severely disrupting the production of automobiles and advanced technology products worldwide. Second, the global economy could face a major shock. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, oil prices may continue rising, fueling inflation and potentially pushing the world toward recession. Third, geopolitical tensions could escalate dramatically. Disputes over Taiwan could intensify, increasing the risk of military conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. At the same time, there would be no meaningful progress toward international agreements on regulating artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons. The Council on Foreign Relations reports that China plans to expand its nuclear arsenal to 1,500 warheads by 2035. Without cooperation between Washington and Beijing, efforts to end the wars in Iran and Ukraine could also fall further behind, prolonging global instability. Overall, few observers expect the Beijing summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to solve the world’s biggest crises overnight. Deep structural tensions remain embedded in the relationship between the two superpowers. Still, the current U.S. strategy appears focused on avoiding direct confrontation. Both sides are effectively buying time to strengthen their economies and military capabilities. Even without a historic breakthrough, the mere fact that the world’s two most powerful leaders are meeting face-to-face is being viewed as a significant source of global reassurance. Limited trade agreements, tariff reductions, or even mutual promises to avoid imposing new sanctions could help restore a measure of stability to the world economy and international politics.
‘Five B’s’ vs. ‘Three T’s’, will Trump’s China visit increase or decrease tensions?
