A U.S. naval blockade on Iran could turn into a large-scale and open-ended military operation, potentially triggering new retaliatory strikes from Tehran and placing severe pressure on the already fragile ceasefire, experts have warned. Following the failure of peace talks held in Islamabad this week, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a social media post that the U.S. Navy would begin enforcing a blockade on any vessel entering or exiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. Central Command later clarified that the measure would specifically target ships traveling to or from Iran, including all Iranian ports located in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, with the policy set to take effect from 10 a.m. Washington time on Monday. Trump further stated that any vessel paying “tolls” to Iran would be denied safe passage even in international waters, emphasizing that those engaging in such activities would face consequences.
The primary objective of this move is to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply is transported. However, analysts argue that implementing such a blockade is effectively an act of war, requiring a significant number of naval assets and long-term operational commitment, making it difficult to sustain.
Experts also warn of serious escalation risks, suggesting that Iran could retaliate by targeting ships in the Persian Gulf or striking infrastructure in countries hosting U.S. military bases. Since the outbreak of conflict on February 28, global oil prices have already surged by nearly 50%, and further escalation could intensify the crisis.
According to analysts, if Iran responds by deploying mines or attacking oil tankers, prices could rise even higher instead of stabilizing. In response to potential threats, Trump issued a strong warning, stating that any attack on U.S. forces or peaceful vessels would be met with decisive action. Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has declared that any warship approaching the strait would be considered a violation of the ceasefire and would face a firm response.
US naval blockade of Iran: Experts fear major war
